Forecast for Winter 2017-18

The year 2017 had relatively normal weather.  The drought ended in March.  The resultant  snowfall exceeded the original seasonal prediction.  The summer has near normal temperatures with fewer than normal number of days with 90 degrees.  October turned out to be the warmest October as cold air failed to arrive.  The National Weather Service forecasted near normal temperature and above normal snowfall for near I-95 in southern New England.

Based on the record October temperature, I examined the following winters in which the October temperatures were nearly the same.  The four warmest years at Bradley Airport were 1963, 2007, 1971, and 1949.  In   addition, the first two years had below normal days with 90 degrees.  The following winters had 52 and 45 inches of snow, on the higher side of normal.  The next two years had 50 and 42 inches of snowfall.  Three of the four years had temperatures slightly above normal and 1963 was about 3 degrees colder than normal.  1963 winter was heavily cooled by the presence of dust from the eruption of the volcano at Mount Agung in Indonesia.  There are also reports of a possible new eruption in the near future for this volcano.

Based on the analysis, the prediction is for 45-50 inches of snow at Bradly Airport with near normal temperatures.  In general, there is less snow near the coast and higher amounts of snow in the northwestern and northeastern hills.

 

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