Global warming has been occurring since the Little Ice Age in the 1600s.  Recently, it appears that 2015 is one of the warmest years for the global average surface temperature.  El Niño occurred in 2015 and contributed to some of the increase in 2015.  The late 1960s was the coolest period in the last half of the 20^th century.    The average global temperature increased 1.0°C (1.8°F) during the period.

First order airport stations are selected from each of the New England states.  The data was processed for 1965 to 2015 and includes minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation.  The daily data was processed and averaged over monthly, seasonal, and annual periods.  Each station was processed independently and regression coefficients were calculated using Excel.   Metadata for each of the sites were examined to determine changes in station locations.  The results for the regression coefficients are shown in the table in °F/decade.

Table:  Regression coefficients in °F/decade for seasonal Minimum and Maximum temperature.

The station with the largest increasing trends is Burlington.  Examination of the time series of temperature show large increases starting in 1973 and in 2008.   A review of the metadata for the station show the station moved 55 feet to a lower elevation in Jan 1973.  A new terminal for the airport opened in Oct 1973.  The terminal was further expanded in 2008.  Substantial suburban homes and the central developed area are to the west of the airport.  These sudden increases were due to the urban heat island effect from the increased activity at the airport and development surrounding the airport.

Bridgeport is located on the shores of Long Island Sound and is heavily influenced by the temperature of water in the Sound.  Temperature data is available for the Sound starting in 1976 and increases 0.6°F per decade.  This accounts for much of the trends at Bridgeport when compared to Hartford and also appears to be an influence on the Providence results.

The results show that the temperatures are summarized as:

• generally increase more rapidly at night than during the daytime in northern New England.
• In southern New England, the temperature rates are nearly the same during the cooler months.
• During the summer, all night temperature trends are increasing more rapidly than during the daytime.
• In general there is little temperature change in the summertime maximum temperature trends with southern New England showing a net cooling over the past 50 years away from Long Island Sound.
• The winter temperatures are rising faster than the global temperature

A recent letter to the editor was published by the Hartford Courant promoting carbon fees and dividends to solve the ‘problem of climate change’.  The writer claimed that a 1% increase in the possible atmospheric moisture last year caused a extreme snowstorm that left 31.9 inches of snow in eastern Pennsylvania and caused tornadoes in Florida.  I wrote the following letter in response and it was published in the on line letters to the editor by the Hartford Courant.

I was glad in reading Janet Heller letter on 2/19/2016 that the carbon fee and dividend will cool the atmosphere and end the danger of flooding and storms.   Had the 1% increase in atmospheric moisture not occurred, we would have gotten only 9.9 inches of snow instead of 10 inches on Monday. And it would be ¼deg cooler this weekend (  when it was 15 deg below zero) without the recent warming induced by the El Nino.

I’m sure that history is wrong about bad weather before carbon dioxide started to increase after World War II, like the 1938 hurricane or the 1888 blizzard in New England. And the transfer of money from the affluent to the poor will allow the poor to have candles for their night light. And meteorologists may need new jobs as the fees will control the weather.

Man has been altering the climate since he became agriculturally oriented thousands of years ago and when he started to build cities. Many trees were cut down to provide room for crops, thereby altering albedo, surface roughness, and moisture availability. Building of cities caused additional changes with the existence of urban heat islands. Large dams were built creating new lakes. And the extensive use of energy, including the emission of particulates and carbon dioxide, has made additional changes to the atmosphere. Temperature changes over the globe have occurred during the last 25,000 years, and they certainly weren’t caused by Man. But the current question is whether we need to upend our economy to forestall catastrophic changes that are foretold in the models.

The temperatures have been rising over the past century, generally in 30-year periods, with interruptions. Currently we appear to be in an interruption with no temperature increase in the past 15 years, even with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. I don’t see any difference in the temperature increases of the past century that would make the increase in the latter 30 years to be exclusively identified with increasing carbon dioxide.

The idea that Man can adjust the carbon dioxide to set a temperature of the earth seems to be beyond the current understanding of climate. There are many things that will influence climate. Externally they include solar outputs and orbital changes. However, internally there are many features that need to be considered. The first is how clouds will affect the climate though the albedo changes and whether its feedback will be positive or negative. A recent proposal is that clouds through the albedo are really the thermostat of the climate. The role of the oceans need to be taken into account for transfers of heat, such as proposed for the deep oceans, or in natural oscillations that move large quantities of heat such as ENSO or the North Atlantic Oscillation.

In particular, the theory of AGW needs revision.   The magnitude of the global warming is largely unknown after numerous ‘revisions’ of the data. The models used around the world are consistently showing overwarming. The increased presence of extreme weather is not supported by the data. The application of the theory needs to follows the rules of the scientific method. Climate theory cannot be exempted from verification because most of the work is funded by governments.

Anthropogenic Global Warming is a hot political issue in many parts of the world and the possible solutions are heavily political. There is a continuing concerted effect by the governments to demonstrate to the world that global warming is due to emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and will cause a number of cataclysmic effects. The Global Warming debate has entered the political arena and politicians like the solutions in that the government may raise large sums of money implementing changes. And in many respects, it has taken the form of a religion in which “This is the way to save the planet.”

Any major change in the global economies aimed at affecting climate will probably have little effect on the climate, but will impose an unneeded expense on the poor and in many parts of the world the poor will be denied electricity. There is certainly not enough evidence that would require the energy supply using carbon to be shut down with a resultant change in the way Man lives within the next 20 years.