Marshall A. Atwater
Forecasts of snow amounts for the coming winter are difficult to make. I use a method that assumes the patterns established in the summer (data from May, June, July) will continues thru the following winter. Then I find a summer pattern in the NOAA data for Bradley Airport and determine what the following winter produced. Last year, there was a major change in the pattern at the end of the year from warm and wet to warm and dry. The warm and dry pattern continued thru the summer. One of the largest influences on the seasonal climate normality is the ENDO index of sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific. The forecast for the coming winter is that it will be negative.
The past summer at Bradley Airport had the highest average temperature with little rainfall. The data for the 10 warmest years in maximum temperatures since 1949 are shown in the table. I also added the ENSO index where the index is negative for La Nina years. Snowfall for the following winter are also included.
| Year | N 90+ | T Max | T Min | T Avg | Rain | ENSO Index | Snow DJF+M |
| 2010 | 26** | 84.78 | 62.74 | 73.76 | 9.52 | 4.1 | 84+2 |
| 1999 | 26 | 84.80 | 61.02 | 72.91 | 5.97 | 2.0 | Missing |
| 2019 | 24* | 84.92 | 62.09 | 73.51 | 8.67 | 0.5 | 23+7 |
| 1995 | 21* | 85.17 | 60.14 | 72.65 | 7.41 | 1.3 | Missing |
| 1971 | 23 | 85.24 | 59.31 | 72.27 | 9.25 | -.7 | 34+3 |
| 1973 | 25 | 85.34 | 63.47 | 74.41 | 11.34 | -1.8 | 24+14 |
| 1966 | 30* | 85.72 | 60.92 | 73.32 | 8.58 | -1.3 | 48+34 |
| 2016 | 24 | 85.95 | 61.76 | 73.85 | 8.4 | -.3 | 41+20 |
| 1949 | 17** | 86.19 | 61.19 | 73.69 | 3.46 | -1.7 | 37+8 |
| 2020 | 39 | 86.42 | 62.53 | 74.48 | 4.42 | -1.2 p |
p Predicted Days with 100 deg = * DJF+M=December, January, February and March
The first four entries are the coolest of the 10 years and they had a positive ENSO index for the following winter and will not be used. The two years that are closest in average temperature are 1973 with 1966 being the cooler year having lower nighttime temperatures. The average snowfall for these years give 34 inches for DJF and 11 inches for March. However March is highly variable ranging from 3 to 34 inches. The total forecast for the year is 45 inches of snow at Bradley Airport. Higher amounts would be expected.in the hills and lower amounts along Long Island. I expect this to be more accurate than the forecasts for 2100.