2018 Winter Forecast

 

The past summer was noted for its high temperature and high amount of rainfall without the benefit of ay tropical storms.  There were no days in which a new record was set for the maximum temperature.  A key element of the summer was high humidity, which increased the nighttime minimum temperature. And increased the discomfort during the day with a higher heat index.  The statistics given by NOAA for
Bradley area:

 

  Month  High Low Mean Rain
JUN:   79.7  56.3   68.0    4.03
JUL:    87.5  64.7   76.1    2.21
Aug    85.6  66.2   75.9    9.10
SUMMER:    84.3  62.5   73.4  15.34

 

So, I examined the data at Bradley International Airport since 1949 to find similar years and then examined the following winter for the weather to be expected.  The summer of 1973 was most similar to the past summer.  June and August were both wet with July relatively dry.  A number of other years had similar summer weather, including 1952, 1991, and 2005.  Other years that were close includes 1988, 2002, and 2013.  Some statistics for the years are shown in the following table with the weather for the following winter.

Year Summer Average Temperature Summer Precipitation Winter
Average

Temperature

Winter Snowfall
1973 74.4 11.3 29.2 30
2005 73.9 12.6 30.4 19
1952 72.6 10.6 32.4 38
1999 72.4 13.9 28.2 23

 

Therefore I will estimate the snowfall to be 28 to 32 inches at Bradley.  The average snowfall is 45 inches. The predicted average temperature of 30 degrees is about 1.7 degrees warmer than normal.