As we approach the end of 2016, it is now time for a winter forecast.  2016 is noted for its dryness and will be 12-15 inches of precipitation below normal.  It has also been generally warmer than normal.  The normal snowfall at Bradly Airport is 45 inches.

Several organizations recently issued winter forecasts.  One can look at the Old Farmer’s Almanac that says “Winter is back” and predicts colder  than normal temperatures with above normal snowfall for southern New England.  The Weather Bureau forecasted the winter to be near normal in temperature and precipitation.  AccuWeather predicted “Frequent storms across the northeastern U.S. this winter may lead to an above-normal season for snowfall.   The Northeast is going to see more than just a few, maybe several, systems in the course of the season…. Overall, it’s predicted that the region will total a below-normal number of subzero days, though the temperature will average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than last year.”  The Weather Channel is forecasting colder than average in New England and probably more snow than average snowfall.  Meteorologist Judah Cohen, of the private forecast firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Massachusetts, relies on Siberian snow cover in the month of October to discern how key weather patterns will likely evolve downstream, above North America and Europe, during the winter. Cohen thinks this winter is going to be a predominantly cold and snowy one from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on southeast to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. http://mashable.com/2016/10/21/winter-outlook-snow-cold/#M7QH.LqMskqL)

I examined the data at Bradley Airport to find similar years and used those years to make a forecast for the forthcoming winter.  Most similar years had between 35 and 42 inches of snow.  In general, the warmer years had smaller snowfall amounts.  Based on this, I predict that 36 inches of snow will fall this winter and that the temperature will be near normal.  I estimate about 5 inches will fall in December.